There’s been an awful lot of speculation that Andy Burnham the current Mayor or Greater Manchester will stand for election for the House of Commons and once installed as an MP become a thorn in the side of Sir Keir Starmer the current Labour leader. Well the speculation is over. Mr Burham, nicknamed Bodybags Burnham because of the Salford Hospital scandal that saw excess deaths in the NHS hospital which occurred during his short time as Health Secretary, has approached Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) to ask for permission to stand as a Labour candidate in the Gorton and Denton constituency.
The by-election which is being called due to the resignation of the former MP following a social media scandal involving, amongst other matters, the former incumbent slagging off constituents, is going to be a massively high profile one especially if the NEC grants permission for Mr Burnham to stand. This contest is going to attract not just serious challengers such as the Tories, Lib Dems and Reform but also the loonspuds of the Greens and a whole host of independents some sectarian and some just in it for the shits and giggles and the publicity. The by election was already going to be watched closely even if Mr Burnham didn’t stand because it will be seen by the media and others as a guide to how hated Starmer is.
Even if, as is being rumoured, Starmer and the NEC block Mr Burnham by imposing a DEI selection process on the local constituency party to ensure that only an ethnic minority candidate is put forward, Starmer is still going to come out of this looking bad. If Starmer and his clique block Mr Burnham then it will appear to the public as if Starmer is manipulating internal party processes to block a potential leadership challenger.
This contest might be bad for Starmer whatever happens. I tend to agree with Dr Lisa Mckenzie when she said that none of the shenanigans surrounding the Gorton and Denton seat will be beneficial to Starmer. In a post on X Dr Mckenzie said:
“Dont know if everyone has now realised but its over for Starmer there is no way he can come out of the Manchester by-election that doesnt lead to him losing his job. He stops Burnham the Party implodes, Burnham stands & wins his job is challenged. Burnham loses Labour Party is finished.”
I can certainly see how this situation could come about. The blocking of Burnham will make Starmer look weak and fearful of challenge, winning the seat will bring into Parliament someone who anti-Starmer types in Labour could rally around and if Burnham stands and loses to Reform or one of the growing numbers of Islamic sectarian parties then Labour could also be consumed by internal conflict over the result.
It’s important to remember that Gorton and Denton is a new constituency made up of parts of other constituencies following boundary changes to Parliamentary constituencies that ensure that each constituency contains roughly the same number of voters. There is no long term history to call on for this constituency to make psephological judgements but the constituency’s prior existence as Denton and Reddish was solid Labour since 1983 when the seat was originally created. Whilst all governing parties sometimes lose seats during by-elections to lose Gorton and Denton would be a big loss. It’s been Labour ever since the seat was created and has stayed Labour under Tory, Coalition and Labour administrations.
Like many northern towns that has had Labour representation for many decades it is not a place where deindustrialisation has not touched. Major industrial employers are now gone and in its place has come retail developments. There is I understand a great deal of deprivation in this constituency that Labour administrations there despite the retail developments that Labour have championed has not alleviated. The people of Gorton and Denton probably deserve better than what Labour have dished out to them over the years and it remains to be seen if local voters decide that after years of Labour it might be time for a change.
I can’t see either the Tories or Lib Dems doing well in this seat based on the 2024 result which saw the Tories and Lib Dems getting less votes than George Galloway’s latest political vehicle The Workers Party managed to gain. Labour might hold on with a reduced majority but then again local British people might choose to throw their lot in with Reform on the grounds that Labour have let them down.
Whatever happens this is going to be one of those ‘popcorn by-elections’ where a massive amount of interest and a massive number of fringe candidates appear is going to be a feature of the contest. Whoever stands and whoever wins what’s certain is that this is going to be a fight with a lot of media and public interest.
Link to source
Dr Mckenzie on Burnham running for Parliamentarians
