The Eastleigh by-election is going to be a corker, it has garnered national interest because of the manner of the previous self confessed criminal MP, Chris Huhne’s departure and also because it comes at a time when many mainstream conservatives and patriots are angry at the constant list of betrayals of Britain coming from the gruesome twosome of David Cameron and Nick ‘I see no gropers’ Clegg. Betrayals over Europe, immigration, welfare, the economy and social policy are angering people of all economic groups. About the only things that I can see that Cameron has done right is to back Michael Gove’s reforms in education.
Anyway, my predictions and the reasons for them are as follows:
Because the Lib Dems must have known that Huhne was dodgy for quite a while, the Lib Dem local authority and Lib Dem HQ have had people on the ground early on garnering postal votes and doing other things to shore up their vote for, I predict a Lib Dem win, despite the Lib Dem’s current round of sex scandals.
Many Tories will have been scared off voting for UKIP by the fears, encouraged by Tory central office that a vote for UKIP would let in either a Lib Dem or worse Labour. I predict that the Tories will come second.
UKIP have done spectacularly well recently Eaandhave shown, in Rotherham, that they can take votes not only from disaffected Tories but also from the more brighter and informed former Labour voters, who have seen Labour transform itself from the party of the working classes into an ‘Islamic party’ in all but name. I predict that UKIP will come third.
Labour have traditionally not done well in places like Eastleigh in recent years, getting only 9.6% at the 2010 General Election, and I predict that John O’Farrell will come in in fourth place. If Labour lose their deposit I’ll go out on the town and celebrate.
If UKIP manage to push themselves into second place, and that is not impossible, then it will give David Cameron the shock he needs. Hopefully many of the voters in Eastleigh and elsewhere may start to think as I do, which is if you want real positive change, if you want to see Britain being proud of itself and its values again, then there is no point in voting for a metropolitan pseudo-socialist like David Cameron and therefore your vote needs to go to a non racist but patriotic party like UKIP.
2010 Election results for Eastleigh
Telegraph blog from Toby Young trying to scare people out of voting UKIP
Interesting article from Roger Scruton on the phenomenon of ‘post modern Tories’.
From Standpoint magazine how Canada’s Conservatives took on the Leftist establishment and won.