American politics is getting decidedly interesting. President Joe Biden and by extension his party, is suffering a massive drop in support. This is not coming from where it could be expected, in the Red States where Republicans continue to hold considerable sway amongst both White and Black conservative leaning voters, but from young voters. This really bodes ill for Joe Biden should he take a run at the Presidency in 2024.
But there’s other problems facing the Democrats and that is that the most likely potential successor to him in the form of Vice President Kamala Harris is none too popular either. As an outside observer of American politics, reading a recent article in Unherd magazine, gives me the distinct feeling that the Democrats are facing a crisis. They are burdened with a President who was voted in primarily it seems on the grounds that he was not Donald Trump but who has rapidly lost support among his party’s key and much needed demographic which is voters under thirty. In addition to that the most likely successor to Biden is a VP who doesn’t have a popular constituency of her own. Her record as a harsh prosecutor means that she cannot garner the votes of the far Left and, bearing in mind the economic woes that are stacking up under Biden’s presidency, because Harris is going to be tainted with this woeful burden of ‘Bidenomics’, I can’t see her picking up votes from centrists or those on the centre Right either.
Unherd said:
After the chaos in Afghanistan, the supply chain crisis and his own visible frailty, it’s not surprising that his numbers have taken a hit. However, what does stand out from recent polling is that the biggest fall in support is among the youngest voters. As recently as June, 18-to-24-year-olds gave Biden the highest ratings of any group, but now it’s the lowest.
It’s not that younger voters are showing any signs of voting Republican. Rather, the big threat to the Dems is turnout. In a report for NCBLX, Noah Pransky looks at the evidence that this is already affecting actual election — in particular the recent recall election in California:
…even though overall turnout for the recall election was down 28% from 2020’s presidential race, the drop-off among voters under 30 (48%) was four times higher than the drop-off among voters over 60 (12%).
– Noah Pransky, NCBLX
Of course as the Unherd article said, there was no chance that Gavin Newsome would have lost the recall election in a state as far left as California is these days. But the fact that the Dems had a very high drop off in voters from the under thirty’s could be sign that the Biden administration has a lot more problems to come. If this drop off is bad as it is in a place like California, then how much worse might it be elsewhere?
From my reading of American political history it is to be somewhat expected that support for an incumbent President subsides to a greater or lesser degree and this is reflected in the losses for the President’s party when it comes to mid term elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Nearly every President from Harry S Truman to Barack Obama took a hit in the votes for either the House or the Senate or both.
But this time things might be a little different. Those younger voters, according to the Unherd article, are not immediately switching from Democrat to Republican. It’s claimed that those abandoning the Democrats from the younger age groups are instead joining what I call the ‘Apathy Party’, which is those who choose not to vote because there is nothing in the form of candidates or policies that will motivate them to do so.
In my view it’s quite possible that those who voted last time voted negatively ie against Trump and might come back in order to vote against Trump if Trump takes another run at the Presidency. But it’s also possible that these voters may stay at home as they might be unwilling to vote for Donald Trump and equally unwilling to vote for either Biden or Harris. The only way I see it for the Democrats to get over this problem would be to nominate for President and Vice President candidates who are not Biden and not Harris. However I cannot see any potential candidate who could do this. The talent pool for the Democrats does appear, at least at this stage in the electoral cycle, to be quite shallow.
The Democrat candidates in 2020 had an advantage, they had a media base that clearly and plainly were Biden and Harris cheerleaders and which was overtly opposed to Donald Trump. The Democrats might not have this advantage in 2024 after four years of the average American being hurt by Bidenomics, the antics of the far Left and by seeing America humiliated on the world stage. It is quite possible that if the media try their ‘orange man bad’ schtick next time, there is in my view a fair chance that it will not be believed. Couple this with a young Democrat voting cohort who might stay at home rather than vote for either Biden or Harris and the Republicans may well be in with a chance in 2024.
Quote from the web site ” American Thinker”
The landscape of America today is littered with innumerable crises that, taken together, have the potential to permanently marginalize and transform the country. Nearly all the current fiascos are deliberately and openly being fomented by the American left and its wholly-owned subsidiary the Democrat party, secure in the knowledge that once the nation is permanently set on the track of a one-party fascist oligarchy there is no turning back.
Yes, a fascist oligarchy. While mindlessly voting for Democrat candidates, the bulk of these easily exploitable voters do not comprehend that the philosophical underpinning of the American left, and thus the Democrat party, is a proprietary strain of fascism with its roots in Marxism.
Sometimes I find American Thinker to be a bit more to the right than I am comfortable with but it’s true that the far left and the Dems want to make permanent changes that are not to the benefit of the average American. On the positive side however from what I can gather there are signs that some demographics that would religously vote for Dems might be wavering.
All this may be true. I think it is. However, it is only relevant if your vote actually counts. In a banana republic like the US it is clear that your vote won’t be counted.
There’s always been some degree of fraud in the US voting system but the question is is there enough fraud to make a big difference especially when the legitimate turnout is very high? The drop off in younger Dem voters seems very unusual and although it did not make a difference in the California recall election, because there was a high turnout from the public sector employee payroll vote, it is something that might make a difference in the mid terms and maybe the 2024 Presidential contest.