Ceuta is a Spanish town on the North African coast and has been considered a part of Spain since at least the 17^th century and was considered Portuguese territory prior to it becoming part of Spain.

About a day ago at the time of writing the border between this Spanish territory and Morocco were breached by thousands of Moroccans and other Africans. I’m seeing unconfirmed figures of 80,000 crossing the border between Morocco and Ceuta. These invaders have been roaming the streets of Ceuta and have allegedly been commandeering the homes of Spaniards living in Ceuta. It’s quite possible that these invaders have done or are doing worse than commandeering Spanish homes but so far I’ve not seen accounts of this but give it time and we will likely see some atrocities being committed by these invaders.

I’m seeing conflicting reports on the response to this invasion by the Spanish military with some sources saying that the military forces of Spain were overwhelmed and others saying that the military in Ceuta was ‘stood down’ by the Spanish government. The true picture of what happened will no doubt emerge over time.

This is primarily a problem for Spain and its people as these invaders are now on Spanish soil and can claim asylum in Spain, something that Spain’s current Left wing government might not be averse to giving succour to these invaders. The Spanish people it needs to be said are in a very difficult position as they are caught between the hammer of the invasion of their sovereign territory and the anvil of a national government that seems to care for and support everyone apart from the Spaniards.

But this is clearly not just a problem for Spain and its people. Now that these invaders have a pathway to continental Europe via Spain both de facto and de jure they might not stay in Spain. They are going to be a problem for all the EU countries and non-EU ones such as the United Kingdom. Already Italy has kicked up a fuss and called for a suspension of the Schengen Agreement that allows free movement between many EU nations and they are probably correct to do so as Italy is also likely to be a target for these invaders.

Many of these invaders are going to try to go North to France, Germany and the UK in order to pick the carcasses of these nation’s welfare systems clean. Britain is especially vulnerable because of its weak border control and I expect that the current wave of invaders who are coming in via Ceuta to add to the mountain of problems caused to the UK by excessive levels and inappropriate types of immigration.

This border breach looks to me like one of those seminal moments in history when things change or fall apart. For modern Europe this could be its ‘Teutoburg Forest’ moment and it might end nations or change the path of nations just as the Teutoburg Forest defeat stopped Roman Emperor Augustus from conquering the Germanic tribes in 9 CE. I can see lots of ways that this invasion might end up and few of my thoughts are good. They could certainly destabilise Spain and if allowed into the rest of Europe could create similar problems elsewhere.

How Europe’s governments deal this issue remains to be seen. If the governments of Europe try to hang onto their ‘business as usual’ attitude and treat these invaders as ‘refugees’ then we might have a massive pan-European political legitimacy crisis as citizens of European countries perceive that their governments are working for the invaders and not them. This could end up going kinetic as the citizens rise up against governments that they vote for fail to protect them and all this is going to be against a backdrop of borders that exist on paper but not in reality.

However European governments could instead break out in a rash of common sense and take a robust approach to the invasion but common sense has not exactly been a stand out feature of European governments when it comes to the issue of borders and migration. If common sense prevails in government then these invaders could be beaten back, using lethal means if necessary. Such an action will of course be whined about by the West’s enemies both those enemies that are nations and those enemies that make up the NGO community but it might be one that is necessary for survival.

If all goes bad and Europe’s governments try to deal with the Ceuta issue by attempting to ‘integrate’ the invaders or some similar means then the only phrase that runs through my head that might go some way to describing what might happen are these from British politician Enoch Powell and are: “like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood’. This invasion might be the moment when things all kick off and bloodshed and strife become permanent fixtures on Europe’s political and social menu for the foreseeable future. I don’t want that but it’s what we all might get.

We are likely to be in for some interesting times and not ones that we’ve chosen or ones we might like.