Off the top of my head I believe that it was the former Prime Minister, the late Harold Wilson who coined the phrase ‘a week is a long time in politics’ to describe how rapidly a political situation could change. Lord Wilson’s phrase certainly applies to the Shropshire North by-election where a massive Tory majority might be overturned by the Lib Dems because of a number of factors.

These factors are a combination of the sleaze allegations that caused the previous member for the seat to resign, the new Tory candidate not being visible enough and being subject to allegations that the party is hiding him because he knows nothing about the constituency and the Reform Party picking up votes from disaffected Tories. Boris Johnson’s green extremism that attacks those in rural off grid areas that need cars to get about with and solid fuel to heat their homes with also seem to be hitting Tory voters who may choose to stay at home rather than vote for a conservative party that doesn’t seem to be very conservative. Add into this mix the Johnson government’s failure to deal with excessive levels of and inappropriate types of immigration along with the current ‘Partygate’ scandals and you have a perfect recipe for a by-election upset.

A reduced Tory turnout caused by disgust at the current less than conservative Tory government assisted by the other factors such as people voting for Reform gives the Lib Dems the chance to do what they are quite good at which is being the repository of protest votes in a by-election. The Lib Dems stand a reasonable chance of picking up protest votes from what I would call the political ‘know nothings’. These are tribal Tories who are angry about the current government but who are also unaware of the history of sleaze and debauchery that afflicts the Lib Dems but who can’t bring themselves to vote Labour. It is these voters who may switch to the Lib Dems, that is if they can be bothered to vote at all.

The reason I believe that this is a possibility is that we are now several years off of a General Election, with the current government having such a large majority that losing Shropshire North would not affect the government too much. Those who want to send a message to government about their dissatisfaction with it without endangering the Tory government can do so in Shropshire North.

To a large extent what we are seeing in Shropshire North is politics as usual with a governing party at risk of losing a by-election seat because of dissatisfaction among voters in that seat about the way that they are governed. If the Tories do lose this long standing safe seat then it will not be because the opposition in the seat is offering something much better, Reform might be but they stand less of a chance and the Lib Dems are worse when it comes to green and cultural issues, but because the Tories have shot themselves in the foot, not just the once but a large number of times. To continue with the firearms analogy there are so many self inflicted wounds created by the Tories it is if the Tories have taken an AK47 with a full 30 round clip and emptied it on their own feet.

It’s been about a week or so since I made my first prediction that the Tories might hold this seat but with a reduced majority. Now I’m not so sure. I’m having to revise my original predictions. The additional scandals that have emerged since then and the Prime Minister’s dropping personal poll ratings make this less likely. The Tories could still hold the seat but winning it with a massive majority is I believe now very much off of the cards. Low turnout, anger at the Tory government failing to behave like Tories, the arrival of Reform and the Lib Dems throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the contest might give the Tories a shock that may well have implications in Westminster.